GOP Pollsters Insist Dean Can Beat Bush

A memo being circulated by a prominent Republican polling firm argues that GOPers run a serious risk of underestimating former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) as a general election candidate against President Bush. [...]

Dean has leapt to the top of the polls in key primary states as well as the money chase by touting himself as the consummate outsider candidate in a field filled with Members of Congress.

“The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat[ic] candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle,” [Pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser of Moore Information] write. “We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.” [...]

Officials involved in Bush’s re-election campaign as well as several Republican pollsters say they long ago came to the realization that Dean was a political force that needed to be taken seriously.

“The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates,” said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Dean gets their base voters excited.”

In an interview Friday, Moore agreed that “those who are fully engaged in the political process understand that [Dean] does represent a potential problem.”